Premier League - title race all but over

Premier League - title race all but over NEWS

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Its not even April but the Premier League trophy is as good as in the hands of Manchester United, who top the table by 15 points with only nine games remaining.

It really isn't conceivable that Utd will let slip such a huge lead and, even should City win at Old Trafford on 8 April, they will regain their Premier League crown, leaving the unanswered questions elsewhere around the table.

After a week away with the World Cup qualifiers its worth looking at how matters stand in the hunt for Champions League and Europa League places as well as the battle to avoid relegation to the Championship.

Man City are now probably more concerned with not being caught by third placed Chelsea, who are only four points behind the reigning champions with a little momentum on their side having won their last two games.

Behind Chelsea, Spurs have offered Arsenal and Everton some optimism with two straight defeats and their hold on the fourth spot grows more tenuous. Another defeat at Swansea this weekend will leave the battle for the last Champions League place wide open, particularly as the Gunners have every reason to be confident of three points from the visit of Reading who have lost five straight.

Reading will arrive at the Emirates with a new manager in the guise of former Southampton boss Nigel Adkins. Adkins is highly regarded but this latest development shines a glaring light on the farce at the Madejski. Was it really worth the risk and subsequent instability to sack Brian McDermott and replace him with a man judged unsuited to the task of keeping up a relegation threatened team at St. Mary's? it appears that some owners feel so frustrated at their impotence to change a team's fortunes that they deem any change, no matter how drastic, to be worth the risk. The odds are against Adkins and Reading but good luck to them.

With two wins in their last two games Everton are right behind Arsenal, breathing down their necks, ready to take advantage of any slip-ups by them and/or Spurs. If they are unable to overtake one of those two teams and take fourth or fifth spot then the Toffees will miss out completely on European football next season. The same goes for Liverpool who are currently in seventh spot, three points behind Everton.

With either Man Utd, Chelsea or Man City guaranteed to contest the FA Cup Final and those three all but certain to take a Champions League spot, the winners of the other FA Cup semi-final, either Wigan or Millwall, will earn a Europa League place even if they fail to win the Cup. Swansea of course are already in next year's Europa league courtesy of their League Cup win so England's representation next season will have an unusual look about it.

Whilst Everton desire European football Liverpool need it, if for no other reason than to prevent star striker Luis Suarez looking enviously at lesser players playing at the pinnacle of the club game in the Champions League and thinking 'that should be me'. Rumours abound that the Uruguayan will seek to leave Anfield if Liverpool fail to make the Champions League (highly improbable), never mind miss out on Europe's second competition, which is highly realistic at this point.

After Liverpool comes the mid table comfort zone where there are seven teams reasonably happy with their lot, safe from the threat of a relegation battle. Although its possible to argue that Newcastle and West Ham are not quite as safe as they'd like to be on 33 points, there are so many teams between them and the bottom three that it's tough to see all of them improving sufficiently to imperil those clubs.

Most observers agree that the battle to avoid Championship football is between the bottom six clubs - QPR, Reading, Wigan, Aston Villa, Southampton and Sunderland, with any three clubs being realistic contenders for the drop. Whilst there are no 'six-pointers' scheduled for this weekend all of the bottom six, bar Wigan, face a club in the top seven who are scrapping for European places, so they won't face opposition happy to take it easy.

Game on.

Before looking ahead to this weekend's fixtures its pertinent to reflect on the performances of the home nations in the recent World Cup qualifiers.

England emerged from the Rio Ferdinand selection morass to take four points missing the opportunity to assume leadership of their group. They still have their destiny in their own hands with home games against Poland and Montenegro as well as the game in Ukraine to come, but the job has been made more difficult by their failure to kill off Montenegro once they had taken the lead.

With regards to the question of Rio Ferdinand two significant issues now stand between him playing for Roy Hodgson again. First, if he requires such delicate handling that he can't even play one game for his country in a two week period between club games (he's a highly fit professional athlete by the way) how can he ever be relied upon in the world's top tournament with a game every 3-4 days?

Second, questioning the competitive hunger of England players when doing some punditry on a foreign TV channel is not the way to engender a desire in the squad to see him back among them. There will be no Rio in Rio next year.

Hopefully Roy Hodgson learned something about himself after Tuesday's performance in Montenegro. He really needed to make a change once it became apparent that the Montenegrans had made half time adjustments. Instead, he failed to appreciate what was required even when it was too late, the only substitution being Ashley Young coming on for Tom Cleverley, when clearly what England needed was another holding midfield player.

Whilst Hodgson could counter that its easy to say these things in hindsight, plenty of commentators were saying this within minutes of the second half starting and it doesn't reflect well on Hodgson that he didn't recognise that change was required. Lets hope he does learn because, as Branko Brnovic showed, other coaches are prepared to adapt and move to Plan B if Plan A is failing - England need to show something of the same flexibility.

Wales' fortunes were mixed with a fine win at Hampden Park undone by a late defeat to the group joint leaders Croatia, after they had taken a 1-0 lead. Although not mathematically eliminated from qualification, in reality they are, joining the Scots who lost both their games, and who are now out of the reckoning.

Ireland kept themselves in the hunt for a playoff place with a creditable draw in Sweden and a less worthy 2-2 draw at home to Austria. They are level with Sweden and Austria on points but the Swedes have played a game less. Northern Ireland, already pretty much out of it, only had the one game after their weather induced postponement of the game against Russia, losing 2-0 at home to Israel.

All of this means that its almost certain that yet another major championship will take place with only England of the home nations participating, unless Ireland can somehow overcome Sweden and Austria and then successfully navigate the playoff route.

Back to the Premier League and here's our full preview of this weekend's games, most of which look to be absolute crackers: -

Saturday 30 March

Sunderland v Man Utd - 12.45pm ko at the Stadium of Light. Sunderland, fighting for their Premier League survival, would have preferred anyone else to be visiting them this weekend, even if Utd have pretty much got the title in the bag. Wayne Rooney was on target for England in both their matches so his hot streak continues, just as Robin van Persie's appears over, although it is extremely unwise to ever take the Dutchman lightly. Sunderland are perilously close to the bottom three but with both Lee Cattermole and top scorer Steven Fletcher both out for the rest of the season their prospects look worse than ever. No doubt they'll fight tooth and claw in this game but it won't be enough to overcome the quality of Utd who haven't lost in the league since mid-November.

Arsenal v Reading - 3pm ko at the Emirates. Arsenal will be wary of a positive Reading reaction to the appointment of their new manager Nigel Adkins, but they have the quality to see off the Royals challenge, provided their array of internationals don't return to league action fatigued. Arsenal will be without top scorer Theo Walcott who is nursing an injury picked up training with England, which will be a relief for Reading who have suffered already at Walcott's feet this season, as well as Jack Wilshere. Indeed Arsenal have scored 12 goals against the Royals this season in their two previous matches, so this game should feature plenty of goals with Reading desperate for three points. Arsenal's French striker Olivier Giroud seems to grow with every appearance and his 15 goals put him just behind Walcott. In fact all of Arsenal's big signings of last Summer, Giroud, Lukas Podolski and Santi Cazorla, have adapted well to life at the Emirates and have found the net regularly. I expect an end-to-end game, furious and full of chances, but ultimately the Gunners will prevail.

Man City v Newcastle - 3pm ko at the Etihad. After playing so well for England will Joleon Lescott have forced his way back into the thinking of City manager Roberto Mancini? We'll see, but the centre back will have done his future prospects no harm, even if Matija Nastasic is the long-term partner for captain Vincent Kompany, who should return for this important game, as should their Argentine striker Sergio Aguero. All of this could spell trouble for a Newcastle side who are probably just one more win away from real safety. Alan Pardew spent very astutely in January and has been told there are funds available to further strengthen the squad in the Summer, so I would imagine he's quite relaxed at the moment. I fancy this will be an attractive game and that City will edge it by a single goal.

Southampton v Chelsea - 3pm ko at St. Mary's Stadium. Another top versus bottom match which is a feature of this weekend and things don't get any easier for Southampton with the visit of a Chelsea team who need points to catch Man City and stay ahead of Spurs and Arsenal. After notching his 200th goal for the club Frank Lampard has the chance to equal if not overtake the club record of 202 goals held by Bobby Tambling. He'll do it eventually, if not in this game and the achievement when it comes will be remarkable given Lampard's midfield position. Southampton's form of late has been up and down with three wins, three defeats and four draws in their last 10 outings. A similar return from their last eight games would probably see them safe and their run-in looks favourable so a defeat here would not be fatal. Chelsea can be vulnerable and I fancy a score draw.

Swansea v Spurs - 3pm ko at the Liberty Stadium. On paper this has the hallmarks of an excellent football match featuring two teams who like the play the 'right' way. For Spurs they'll be looking to emulate their North London rivals Arsenal who won 2-0 at the Liberty Stadium a couple of weeks ago, but the fact that they've lost their last three games might be worrying manager Andre Villas-Boas. On a positive note for Spurs, Swansea have lost their last two games and have little reason to fight with their league position secure and the League Cup already in the bag. Conversely the lack of pressure that most teams are experiencing at this stage of the season might just served to unshackle Swansea's inhibitions, allowing them to play without fear. Whatever the outcome this looks to be a fine game in the making and I fancy Spurs to edge it.

West Ham v West Brom - 3pm ko at Upton Park. Probably the only 'non-game' of the weekend in that neither side comparatively speaking has much to play, both being safe from relegation and yet out of the fight for European places. Neither team has been consistent of late although West Brom's form has been good enough to keep them in the top half of the table, whilst the Hammers have managed to keep their heads above the relegation waters. Based on the Hammers having a fairly good record at Upton Park I'm plumping for a home win.

Wigan v Norwich - 3pm ko at the DW Stadium. With an FA Cup semi-final at Wembley secure Wigan now need to focus on accumulating enough points to take them away from danger. Roberto Martinez's team may well fancy their chances here too, as Norwich have the worst record of anyone in the top flight over the last 10 games, with only a single win. Wigan are renowned for their late season escape acts and now is a good time to show they still possess that talent - inconsistency is still a problem though. Norwich have only won once away this season and its at home that Wigan have struggled so something has to give. Wigan need the points more and this will drive them to a rare home win.

Everton v Stoke - 5.30pm ko at Goodison Park. The last time these teams met Everton's top scorer Marouane Fellaini was lucky to escape a sending off after striking Stoke's Ryan Shawcross several times, once with his forehead. The FA eventually caught up with the Belgian but, even with that suspension and a similar transgression by Stoke's other centre back Robert Huth, I'd be surprised if battle is not re-commenced on Saturday. That would be a shame because both teams, and Everton in particular, are capable of playing some excellent football. The deciding factor in this game is form - Everton have only lost at home once in the current campaign whereas Stoke have only won once away. The odds say an Everton win and so do I.

Sunday 31 March

Aston Villa v Liverpool - 4pm ko at Villa Park. It's debatable who needs the three points on offer more. Liverpool require Champions League football to resume their place at football's top table, whilst Villa cannot afford to be relegated if they are to retain the services of their better players, such as Christian Benteke. Despite media reports in Uruguay Liverpool have been quick to quash reports that Luis Suarez wants to leave to pursue his ambition of Champions League football, but of course every player has a price and Man City, the strikers most ardent admirers, have very deep pockets. Suarez didn't find the net when the two teams met in December, a game Villa will remember fondly as they played some brilliant football, winning 3-1 at Anfield. A repeat would be most welcome at Villa Park, but Liverpool are a far more stable and effective team now. I fancy a draw here.

Monday 1 April

Fulham v QPR - 8pm ko at Craven Cottage. A London derby with a whole lot at stake for QPR who will view this as one of the more winnable games left in their fixture list. Whilst Fulham are consistently good at home they have little to play for, safe from relegation as they are, although that didn't stop them knocking off Spurs in their last league game. As ever Dimitar Berbatov remains their play maker and Rangers will have to track him carefully or suffer the consequences. For QPR they must overcome their poor away form if they are to take anything from the game. They are much better organised under Harry Redknapp but a win is essential and I can see them throwing the kitchen sink at Fulham. I can also see it working for a much needed Rangers win.

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