Six Nations - championship hots up

Six Nations - championship hots up NEWS

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With three rounds gone its still England on top and on course for a Grand Slam although Wales can still defend their championship if they win their last two games.

Three down, two to go for England in their quest for a first Grand Slam since 2003, the year England also won the World Cup. Whilst they won't take anything for granted in Rome the consensus amongst pundits is that England will travel to the Millennium Stadium in a couple of weeks with the Grand Slam in their sights.

Between them and a record thirteenth Grand Slam are Italy and then Wales, themselves Grand Slam winners last season, who still have a chance to win the championship should they beat Scotland and England in the final match.

England's win against France was a tale of two halves. In the first half at Twickenham France were more like the side we know and love. The recall of Trin-Duc and Parra gave the team shape, discipline and a cutting edge. The return of Fofana to centre allowed him to wreak his usual havoc and by half time le Blues led 10-9 courtesy of his try.

In truth England hadn't played badly up to that point, and they had matched France's intensity and improved play, albeit creating few chances. The second half saw a much better performance by England however and their cause was aided by the inexplicable decision of French coach Phillipe St Andre to revert to the half back pairing that fared so badly in their opening two games. Once Michalak and Machenaud had been introduced France pretty much fell apart whilst in contrast England's replacements had a positive impact.

Although England coasted to a 10 point win at the end and never looked threatened once they had taken the lead it should be acknowledged that their solo try shouldn't have been allowed so they were perhaps fortunate. However, looking at the positives they handled a much improved French team and demonstrated that they have strength in depth with lots of excellent players pushing for a starting place.

I'm not sure where France go from here. With games remaining against Ireland and Scotland they could conceivably 'win' the wooden spoon, a unthinkable proposition after their excellent Autumn series. St. Andre needs to realise his selection errors immediately and bring back Trin-Duc and Parra as his starting 9 and 10. England went through a phase of selecting players out of position a few years ago and that didn't work. The French could learn from that and leave, for example, one of the world's best centres (Fofana) in his rightful position.

Next up for the French is Ireland and coach Declan Kidney must still be trying to work out how his young team lost in Edinburgh. They dominated possession, particularly in the first half, but couldn't convert their territorial advantage into points. The Scots defended like demons, played an excellent tactical kicking game and disrupted the Irish set-piece. The result was a 12-8 Scotland win that will see them believing they can challenge for the championship. Far fetched? If they beat Wales at Murrayfield and then France, who lets face it are not having the best of seasons, and then Wales beat England by a decent margin then they could conceivably take the Six Nations on points difference.

Okay, there's some big 'if's' there, but it's a possibility and Wales would do well to remember that before they assume their good form will guarantee a victory at Murrayfield. Wales have been impressive of late and, but for one poor half against Ireland, they would be on top of the table with England.

With England expect to brush Italy aside and the Ireland v France game largely an irrelevance, it's the match in Edinburgh which captures the imagination and will probably have the most impact on the final standings. As matters stand then Wales are probably the favourites, just. However, never underestimate Scotland and the passion they can bring. Ireland floored Wales with their initial intensity, building a score that Wales couldn't catch. The Scots are capable of something similar, should Wales show any complacency.

In terms of the continuing Lions watch not much has changed since the last the last outing. Leigh Halfpenny still looks the nailed-on favourite for the full-back position unless, as Jeremy Guscott has suggested, he's shifted to the wing to allow for the inclusion of Stuart Hogg, Rob Kearney or Alex Goode. Manu Tuilagi's return showed his destructive power and he must be a likely starter in the midfield, perhaps alongside the evergreen Brian O'Driscoll. England's captain Chris Robshaw continues to produce man-of-the-match performances that can't be overlooked, even if he's not seen as a natural No.7 by Lions coach Warren Gatland.

Ryan Jones' resumption as captain has seen a return to form and he now looks a good bet to make another Lions tour. Former Wales captain Sam Warburton is struggling but he's recalled in place of Justin Tipuric who moves to the bench the bench, form where its tough to make a case for inclusion. England fly-half Owen Farrell has pushed himself to the forefront of Gatland's mind and he'll be disappointed that he won't be able to press his claim further this weekend, although a final flourish at the Millennium Stadium against Wales would seal his plane ticket to Australia.

There are however, lots of places still up for grabs and the clash at Murrayfield will be intriguing not least in terms of how rivals for certain positions fare. Leigh Halfpenny v Stuart Hogg, Mike Ross v Adam Jones, Toby Faletau v Kelly Brown - mouth watering.

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Saturday 9 March

Scotland v Wales - 2.30pm ko at Murrayfield. Both teams won last week but in contrasting fashion with Wales dominating Italy and Scotland squeezing past an Ireland team who for long periods were the better side. Scotland were not quite a shadow of the side that brushed aside Italy but there was frustration at Murrayfield that they were unable to dictate terms to an Ireland team shorn of so many starters. However, their defence was sound and tactically they frustrated Ireland. Can they do the same to a Wales team who are much better behind the pack is a question that remains to be seen. It's the old equation for Wales - win enough ball and they have the quality in the backs to put points on the score board. Alun Wyn-Jones returns to the second row to help his team win and retain ball and Sam Warburton comes off the bench, but Ryan Jones retains the captaincy. Euan Murray returns to the Scotland front-row so the battle up front is finely balanced. Although Scotland are perhaps the most improved team of this year's Six Nations Wales are just that touch better all-round and for that reason I fancy them to win.

Ireland v France - 5pm ko at the Aviva Stadium. After two straight defeats Ireland could be in trouble here, facing a France team determined to show their true colours and avoid the ignominy of a wooden spoon. Its unlikely that fly-half Jonny Sexton will be fit enough to return so, with Ronan O'Gara not even in the squad, it looks like Paddy Jackson will continue in the No.10 shirt. Prop Cian Healey returns after a successful appeal reduced his ban but impressive lock forward Donnacha Ryan, who has been mentioned as a possible Lion, is still struggling to be fit. France, who showed some improvement against England, have made just three changes to their squad in preparation for the game, bringing in Maxime Medard and Sebastien Vahaamahina for Benjamin Fall and Jocelina Suta, whilst injured hooker Dimitri Szarzewski is replaced by Guilhem Guirado. If France coach Phillipe St Andre apparently hasn't learnt the lesson of Twickenham and although scrum-half Parra is retained it's Freddie Michalak who gets the nod at No.10. I can see France getting their first win of the championship. If not, then there's more pain in store for our Gallic cousins.

Sunday 10 March

England v Italy - 3pm ko at Twickenham. Leg four of five in England's quest for their first Grand Slam in a decade sees the visit of Italy to Twickenham. If there was a game that Owen Farrell could ever afford to miss for England, its probably this one and he is rested in preparation for the Wales game next week, with Toby Flood his obvious replacement. Tom Croft is back in the squad after a hellish nine months of injury but the best he can probably hope for is a place on the bench, given the outstanding performances of Chris Robshaw and Tom Wood. The rest of the England team should be unchanged after a fourth straight win. Italy have faded after that magnificent win over the French and they badly missed suspended captain Sergio Parisse against Wales, whose scrum was surprisingly destructive against a usually dominant Italian pack. This will be good news for England, although Parisse returns after a successful appeal. England may look to be slightly more adventurous than they were allowed to be in the Ireland and France games and a secure set-piece is a must for that strategy, although potential rain may scupper any plans for a fast, open game. England are strong favourites and I can't see Italy who, as always will be plucky, derailing their Grand Slam plans.

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